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Welcome Since 1998 May 26, 2012
The Duke'$ Sports
*Free Premium Selection on This Page Everyday by 4:30 ET*
The Duke'$ Sports
*Free Premium Selection on This Page Everyday by 4:30 ET*
9-3 Top Daily Play Run
Solid +19.36 Unit 39 Day Run
148 Week Run of +329.75 Units
209-135-13 Top Daily Play Run
70-39-1 Best Bet (3.5* or higher) Run
- After Spurs (-11) Win Easily May 16, 2012
This Week in Review: +2.60 Units Last Week: +2.50 Units
- Friday: 2-0 Sweep: Top Daily Play -- Brewers Under (9') Delivers and Insiders' Plays Roll!
- Thursday: Pacers (+2') Crumble But Insiders Deliver Angels (-115)
- Wednesday: Top Daily Play - Philadelphia (-1') Hits!
- Tuesday: Top Daily Play Hits w/ San Francisco (+105) in Winning Day
- Monday: Top 2 Plays Hit: Okla City (-7') & Oakland (+105)!
Complimentary MLB Insider Premium for Friday: 5/25/2012:
Philadelphia (-116) [ Lee over Lohse ] Winner
Phillies/Cardinals 8:15: The Phillies have shown strength on the road against teams above .500 at 10-1
and we'll ride them tonight. Cliff Lee takes the mound in hopes of putting behind him the sluggish
performance against Boston last Sunday. We'll bet that Lee will get it done here. Lee sports a strong 3-1
mark with a 1.48 ERA in 4 regular season starts against St. Louis. On the other hand, the Cardinals'
Kyle Lohse, who started the season strong but now struggling, has given up 8 ER over his last 2 starts
or 12 1/3 innings. Lohse has been sub-par against Philadelphia at 3-5 with a 3.85 ERA over 11 career
starts. With Philadelphia appearing to gather some winning momentum, we'll grab the value with them
and Lee here. Philadelphia is 20-6 as a road favorite in this price range and 13-3 with Lee after allowing
5 or more runs in previous game. Phillies the call.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Sunday: 5/20/2012:
Indiana (+2') for 2.5 Units **' Loss
Heat/Pacers 3:30: I realize that the Heat are still dangerous despite the goings-on with Wade. Big time
players usually respond in adverse situations like this; however, the Pacers are playing unselfish
basketball as Vogel has utilized his bigs (Hibbert and West) well to take advantage of Bosh's void;
moreover, the perimeter is opening as the Heat's LeBron James has too much burden on his shoulders
at PF. And that has restored Granger's confidence as he is knocking them down against a team/player
he's struggled against. Miami has grown dependent on their big 3 and when two of them don't show up,
teams that are deep and play great team basketball-- like Indiana -- can expose their weak spots.
Pacers are 7-3 ATS as a dog in this spread range. Heat have fallen to 3-11 ATS on the road against a
home team with a winning % above .600. Pacers the call.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Tuesday: 5/15/2012:
Indiana (+7) for 3 Units *** Winner
Pacers/Heat 7:05: The Heat will not have Chris Bosh on the floor and that should pose problems for
Miami. The numbers tell the story: with Bosh, the Heat's winning % .746; without Bosh, .444. And with
Bosh, the Heat score significantly more points than without yet give up less on the defensive end.
Although James and Wade can take over a game at any given instant, the Pacers do recognize tonight
is a major window of opportunity and should be prepared to seize the moment. Although Miami's bigs
Anthony and Turiaf bring talent to the floor, the Pacers versatile bigs Hibbert, West with Hansbrough off
the bench should capitalize on Bosh's void. And with LeBron James possibly moving to power forward,
Indiana's Granger should finally shake loose of James and get back to what he does best -- score. We'll
take the points tonight.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Monday: 5/14/2012:
Boston (-4') for 1.5 Units *' Loss
76ers/Celtics 7:05: The Celtics got off to a sluggish start but their ruthlessness and experience finished
the upstart 'Sixers down the stretch. A sluggish Game 1 should get the attention of the veteran Celtics.
I've seen a similar pattern run its course before; more recently, against Atlanta in the opening round
when the Celtics slothed through a tough Game 1 only to put them away at home in Game 2. Celtics are
unlikely to stay ice cold from beyond the arc (11% / 2 of 18 Saturday); instead, we'll look for more of
Rondo dribble penetration with dishes to red hot KG. And clearly the revolving pick and rolls late in the
game sank the 76ers. The Celtics have a few options offensively whereas the 76ers are limited in their
halfcourt offense. Sure, the 76ers delivered 40 in the paint Saturday, but discredit the Boston defense
for that. We'll look for more defensive discipline from the Celtics this time around.
Complimentary Insider Premium for Wednesday: 5/9/2012:
Washington Under (7) [ Detwiler / Bedard ] Winner
Nationals/Pirates 7:05: This series has taken an "under" flavor going 2-5 O/U in its last 7 and should
stay swinging in that direction, especially with two hot southpaw pitchers, slumping bats vs lefties, and an
umpire behind home plate who allows a large strike zone. Both of tonight's starters are in good form:
Detwiler sports a 1.59 ERA with an outstanding WHIP of .99; his counterpart -- Eric Bedard controls a
solid 2.65 ERA with a WHIP of 1.47. The bats of both teams leave much to be desired, especially against
lefties. Washington: BA .210 while driving in just 2.83 rpg / Pittsburgh: .234 while driving in 2.91 rpg. The
home plate umpire -- Gerry Davis is a combined 3-12-1 O/U while manning the plate for these teams.
Detwiler and Bedard are a combined 3-17-1 O/U. "Under" it is.
Complimentary MLB Premium for Monday: 5/7/2012:
St. Louis (-115) [ Lynn over Saunders ] for 1.5 Units *' Winner
Cardinals/Diamondbacks 9:40: Cardinals are hitting lefties well (5.32 rpg / .281 BA) and should get the
best of Joe Saunders. Sure, Saunders is hot, but last time he faced the patient Cardinals' lineup, he had
4 walks in 5 innings despite collecting the win. I don't think he'll be that fortunate tonight. The D'backs
are just 2-7 at home and 1-5 at home with Saunders when the 'total' is in this range. Cardinals counter
with 24 year old Lance Lynn who is red hot with a 1.66 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. And he has something
that Saunders doesn't: run support from mates. Cardinals are a sweet 12-4 on the road against lefty
starters. And the Cardinals' bullpen sports an ERA of 1 ER less than the current Ariz relievers. With Ariz
slumping at the plate, we'll look for the Cardinals and Lynn to stay hot.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Sunday: 5/6/2012:
*Best Bet* LA Lakers Under (201') for 3.5 Units ***' Top Daily Play Winner
Lakers/Nuggets 9:35: Nuggets love to utilize their youth and speed with fast transition attempts following
opponents missed shots. Tonight, the Lakers should play smart and limit offensive rebounding by flying
back on defense to slow the Nuggets pushing the ball up the floor; after all, the Nuggets aren't nearly as
effective when running half court sets -- most of it is freelancing and spacing the floor for outside shots.
And Denver hits the 3 point shot at just a 33.2% clip (24th in NBA).
The Lakers are 6-22 O/U against teams above .500. They're also 2-5 O/U as a playoff road dog. Denver
has heavy under trends, including 7-21 O/U against teams above .500, and 1-5-1 O/U in conference
quarterfinals action. This series has gone 6-21 O/U over the last 27 meetings, including 0-4 O/U in
Denver. Good value with the "under" considering the last three games of this series in Denver averaged
185 with a range of 182 to 189.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Monday: 4/30/2012:
Dallas (+6') for 2.5 Units **' Top Daily Play Winner
Mavericks/Thunder 9:35: The Mavericks are a veteran group that won't be pushed around at this
location; after all, they're 18-7-1 ATS at Okla City and now covered 6 of the last 8 in this series. Sure,
they miss Tyson Chandler from last year's championship team, but Haywood stepped up his game
Saturday and should continue to play well at center. Okla City plays reckless and although Westbrook
and Durant are arguably the best 1-2 punch in the NBA, Nowitzki is a closer and a big game player. We'll
look for him to show a better performance today than he did Saturday. Dallas is a sweet 9-1-1 ATS as a
playoff dog and 6-0-1 ATS in Conference Quarterfinals action. The Thunder sports a sluggish 0-4 ATS
mark as a home favorite in this range and should be challenged here. With the road team in this series
at a sweet 19-6-1 ATS, I'm jumping back on Dallas.
Complimentary MLB Premium for Friday: 4/27/2012:
Houston (+129) [ Rodriguez over Leake ] for 2 Units *' Winner
Astros/Reds 7:10: Like Wandy Rodriguez. When he gets into mid-season form, he is as good a pitcher
as any in MLB. He's coming off a strong outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers on the 22nd. He sports
a strong 1.42 ERA on the season with a WHIP less than 1. He moved up in the rotation and it shouldn't
be a problem on 4 days rest tonight. I'm not going to put a lot of stock into his poor record at Cincinnati;
after all, he hasn't been hit hard there. He merely didn't get enough run support in a majority of those
outings. Tonight, we'll look for his mates to help him out with run support against Mike Leake who
opposing hitters are batting .310. Leake is 1-5 in Friday starts, 1-4 in game 1 of a series and sports a
bloated 4.45 ERA in 7 appearances including 5 starts against Houston. We'll look for Wandy to go deep
into the innings and significantly help Houston deliver the win.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Monday: 4/23/2012:
San Antonio (-13) for 2 Units ** Top Daily Play Winner
Blazers/Spurs 8:35: The Blazers routed the Spurs on February 21st 137-97 to hand San Antonio their
worst loss of the season; on that day, however, the Spurs were without the services of Duncan, Parker
and Ginobili. Currently, the Spurs are healthy, kicking arse and taking names on a 7-0 SU/ATS tear.
Portland, on the other hand, has a host of injuries, including key components (Aldridge, Felton, Batum,
Williams, departed Gerald Wallace) who helped dismantle San Antonio in February.
The Spurs are running their offense with machine-like precision and should continue to rack up big
numbers. The Blazers are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 on the road against teams with a home winning %
above .600. Spurs and the "over" the call.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Friday: 4/20/2012:
Charlotte (+14) for 2 Units ** Winner
Grizzlies/Bobcats 7:05: Bobcats are getting blown out in virtually every game but value strikes here.
They're catching Memphis coming off an NBA Playoff clinching victory over another lightweight - New
Orleans. The fat and happy Grizzlies could easily come into this one overconfident and go through the
motions.Memphis went into Charlotte in January of last season and were beaten soundly by the Bobcats
96-82. The Grizzlies are notorious for sluggish games against teams with losing records at 2-8 ATS. And
they're a poor 3-13 ATS as a favorite of 11+ points. Granted, the Bobcats looked pathetic against
Chicago -- guys standing around, jogging and allowing the Bulls to breeze by them; however, they are
competitors at an elite level of play. And they do not want to be distinguished as the worst team (at a
percentage standpoint) to ever don an NBA uniform. We'll look for a strong effort here from Charlotte.
Complimentary NBA Premium for Thursday: 4/19/2012:
Indiana (-5) for 2 Units ** Winner
Bucks/Pacers 7:05: Pacers should sweep the season series. Pacers' chemistry is outstanding and
Hansbrough and Barbosa can come off the bench with quality minutes as well. Milwaukee, on the other
hand, upgraded their talent with the addition of Monta Ellis but chemistry is few and far between.
Defensive lapses came to a head with bottom feeder Washington doing a number in the second half on
them last night. That's inexcusable for a team that was still in the playoff hunt. They're now 2 1/2 games
behind Philadelphia for the #8 spot as the season winds down. We'll look for the Pacers to maintain that
#3 seed in the East.The Bucks are a mere 2-5 ATS in the their last 7 road dog roles and failed to cover
in 4 of the last 5 on the road against a team with a home winning % above .600. And the Bucks are a
mere 7-13 ATS in the second of back-to-backs.
Russell Westbrook delivered a strong outing in Game 5 on Monday night.
His 28 points helped Okla City (-7') deliver our Top Daily Play in an easy
106-90 route of Los Angeles. The Thunder move on to face the Spurs in
the Western Conference Finals.
His 28 points helped Okla City (-7') deliver our Top Daily Play in an easy
106-90 route of Los Angeles. The Thunder move on to face the Spurs in
the Western Conference Finals.
